Weak demand fears weigh on copper, aluminium
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Weak demand fears weigh on copper, aluminium UPDATED 02 Jun 2008 | 1:07  
Weak demand fears weigh on copper, aluminium

By Chloe Fussell

LONDON (Reuters) - Copper and aluminium eased on Monday as the market priced in lower demand from China and the United States ahead of key U.S. manufacturing data.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange traded at $7,850 a tonne in official rings, down from $7,935 at the close on Friday, while aluminium was at $2,904 a tonne, down from $2,931.

"Barring any supply-side event such as a strike or severe production disruptions, I see the market as steady towards the downside this week, as we're moving towards the seasonal slowdown in China," said Marc Elliott, analyst at investment bank Fairfax.

Traders said a survey on manufacturing by the U.S. Institute for Supply Management due later on Monday could change or reinforce the weak outlook for copper as the United States is the world's second largest consumer

Copper, used widely in the power and construction industries, has lost more than 20 percent since hitting a record high of $8,880 a tonne on April 17.

The absence of Chinese consumers in the market and rising stocks have helped push prices down, analysts said.

"The impact of slowing economic growth and rising inventories seems to be taking its toll on the entire complex, even though there appears to be a clear distinction between the three base metals that remain," BNP Paribas said in a note.

Stocks of copper in LME warehouses fell 1,000 tonnes to 123,950 tonnes, but that is still more than 10 percent above the level at the beginning of May.

POWER

Aluminium stocks at above 1,070,000 tonnes are about 60 percent above levels at the beginning of the year. But analysts expect concern about power supplies in producer country China to support prices of the energy-intensive metal.

A Chinese government offical said on Monday the central provinces of Hubei, Henan and Jiangxi were likely to face worse than usual power shortages over the next few months as earthquake-hit Sichuan may need to import electricity.

In the long term, analysts say the outlook for aluminium remains positive as power costs, which account for one-third of smelting costs, remain high and demand grows.

Lehman Brothers said in a recent note Chinese demand could grow by an average of around 13 percent annually until 2020 and keep prices high. "We believe that China will remain an important price driver in the coming years."

Zinc used for galvanising steel was hovering near a two-year low hit of $1,955 a tonne hit on Friday. It traded at $1,964 from $2,005 on Friday.

"Zinc supply is plentiful, and right now the LME inventory is building up," Elliot said.

Zinc stocks are up about 60 percent to 144,850 tonnes since the start of January.

Lead prices were also hit by high stocks, falling to $1,968 a tonne from Friday's last quote at $1,974/1,975.

Lead stocks have risen nearly 50 percent to 67,300 tonnes since the beginning of the year.

"Although we believe that lead looks oversold at current levels it will be difficult for any meaningful gains to be made while stocks continue to rise," Barclays Capital said in a note.

"Nevertheless, Chinese buying is strengthening and production is struggling to rise from last year's levels ... These factors lead us to believe that further builds in LME inventories will be short-lived."

Tin traded higher at $20,595 a tonne from $20,200 on Friday and nickel slipped to $21,750 from $22,100.

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